Some medieval states lasted for centuries. Others rose quickly, disrupted the political order and disappeared almost as suddenly, leaving behind the question of what might have happened had they endured.
These short-lived states emerged from conquest, rebellion, disputed succession and the collapse of older powers. Despite their brief existence, many left a considerable mark on the regions they controlled, altering borders, weakening established kingdoms and creating political possibilities that had not existed before. Their eventual collapse was not always inevitable: a different ruler, a successful battle or a more secure succession might have allowed some to survive. Examining why they rose and fell therefore offers more than a history of failed states; it reveals how uncertain the medieval political world could be and how differently history might have unfolded.
1. Middle Francia (843–855)
Partition of Francia after the Treaty of Verdun 843 – map by Furfur / Wikimedia Commons
Middle Francia emerged from the struggle among Charlemagne’s grandsons for control of the Carolingian Empire. Under the Treaty of Verdun in 843, the empire was divided among Lothair I, Louis the German and Charles the Bald. Lothair retained the imperial title and received an immense band of territory stretching from the North Sea through the Low Countries, the Rhineland, Burgundy and Provence into northern Italy. His kingdom included Aachen, the former centre of Charlemagne’s government, as well as Rome and the wealthy cities of northern Italy. On a map, Middle Francia appeared to be the bridge connecting the northern and southern parts of the old empire.
Yet its great length was also its central weakness. The Alps divided its territories, communications were difficult, and the kingdom contained regions with different political interests and identities. Middle Francia was not destroyed by invasion, however. When Lothair became seriously ill in 855, he divided it among his sons through the Treaty of Prüm. Louis II received Italy and the imperial title, Lothair II received the northern territories that became known as Lotharingia, and Charles received Provence and much of Burgundy. The original kingdom had lasted only twelve years, but its territories remained at the centre of political struggles among the rulers of Western Europe for centuries.
Had Middle Francia endured, the political map of Europe might have developed very differently. A stable kingdom controlling the lands between West and East Francia could have limited the expansion of the powers that eventually became France and Germany. It might also have preserved a stronger political connection between northern Italy, the Rhineland and the Low Countries, while giving the Carolingian imperial title a more substantial territorial base. Such a geographically divided kingdom would have been difficult to maintain, but its survival could have created a major central European power occupying some of the continent’s wealthiest and most contested regions.
2. Serbian Empire (1346–1371)
Serbian Empire at it’s greatest extent (1355), with internal divisions – Map by Serbian1331 / Wikimedia Commons
The Serbian Empire was largely the creation of Stefan Dušan, who took advantage of civil wars and declining central authority within the Byzantine Empire to expand southwards. Serbian forces gained control of Macedonia, Albania, Epirus and Thessaly, creating a state that extended from the Danube towards the Gulf of Corinth. In 1346, Dušan was crowned “Emperor of the Serbs and Greeks” at Skopje, signalling his ambition to succeed Byzantium as the leading Orthodox power in southeastern Europe. He also elevated the Serbian Church to a patriarchate and introduced Dušan’s Code, an extensive body of law intended to govern his enlarged and diverse empire.
The empire’s strength depended heavily on Dušan’s leadership and military success. When he died unexpectedly in 1355, his son Stefan Uroš V inherited territories that had been conquered faster than they could be integrated. Powerful nobles increasingly governed their lands independently, leaving the emperor with little effective authority. This fragmentation became particularly damaging as the Ottomans expanded into the Balkans. In 1371, the regional rulers Vukašin and Jovan Uglješa were defeated at the Battle of Maritsa, while Uroš died childless later that year. The empire consequently broke into a collection of smaller principalities. Nevertheless, it remained the largest state created by medieval Serbia and left an important legal, political and religious legacy.
Had the Serbian Empire remained united, it might have presented a much stronger obstacle to Ottoman expansion in the Balkans. A stable succession and a more effective central administration could have preserved control over Macedonia and other strategically important territories, possibly allowing Serbia to organise broader cooperation with Byzantium, Bulgaria and Hungary. It would be too much to assume that the empire could have permanently stopped the Ottomans, but a powerful Serbian state might have delayed their advance and prevented the political fragmentation that made the region increasingly vulnerable. Its survival could also have shifted the centre of Orthodox power away from a declining Constantinople and towards a Serbian imperial court.
3. Valencia under El Cid (1094–1102)
El Cid depicted in a 16th century book – WIkimedia Commons
Valencia became the centre of an unusual independent principality created by Rodrigo Díaz de Vivar, better known as El Cid. A Castilian warrior who had served both Christian and Muslim rulers, Rodrigo gradually extended his influence across eastern Iberia while the local taifa kingdoms faced pressure from the expanding Almoravid Empire. After a lengthy siege, he captured Valencia in 1094 and governed it as its effective ruler. His forces included both Christians and Muslims, reflecting the complicated political alliances of eleventh-century Iberia. Later that year, he defeated an Almoravid attempt to recover the city and subsequently strengthened his position by capturing nearby fortresses.
The principality depended heavily on El Cid’s military leadership and personal network of followers. When he died in 1099, his widow, Jimena Díaz, succeeded him and attempted to preserve control of Valencia. Almoravid pressure continued, however, while the Christian kingdoms were unable or unwilling to provide enough support to hold the exposed city. In 1102, King Alfonso VI helped evacuate Valencia, which then passed into Almoravid hands. Although the principality lasted only eight years, its creation demonstrated that an ambitious military leader could build a new state between the established Christian kingdoms and Muslim powers. It also became central to El Cid’s later transformation into one of the most famous figures of medieval Spanish history.
Had Valencia survived, it might have developed into an independent Christian-led state on the Mediterranean coast rather than eventually becoming part of the Crown of Aragon. Its continued existence could have restricted Almoravid expansion in eastern Iberia and created another competitor in the struggles among Castile, Aragon and the remaining taifa kingdoms. Because El Cid’s authority rested on cooperation across religious and political boundaries as well as conquest, a durable Valencian principality might also have developed differently from the larger kingdoms surrounding it. Its survival would not necessarily have ended conflict in the region, but it could have significantly altered the balance of power during the following century.
4. Norman Kingdom of Africa (1148–1160)
Map by IvanBondarev / Wikimedia Commons
The Norman Kingdom of Africa was another striking example of Norman expansion during the Middle Ages. Within a few generations, Norman warriors and dynasties had conquered England, established principalities in southern Italy and taken Sicily from its Muslim rulers. From Sicily, they then looked south towards the coast of North Africa. The resulting “Kingdom of Africa” was not a completely separate monarchy, but an overseas extension of Roger II’s Kingdom of Sicily. Political divisions, famine and the weakening of the Zirid dynasty provided Roger with an opportunity to intervene. Tripoli was captured in 1146, followed by Mahdia, Sfax and Sousse in 1148. By the following year, the Normans controlled much of the coastline of Ifriqiya, encompassing parts of present-day Tunisia, eastern Algeria and western Libya.
The Normans governed their African possessions through a combination of Sicilian officials and local Muslim leaders, while merchants continued to connect the region with Sicily, Egypt and trade routes reaching into sub-Saharan Africa. The conquest demonstrated the extraordinary geographical reach of Norman expansion and the ability of Sicily’s rulers to govern territories containing different religious, linguistic and cultural communities. Their position became increasingly precarious after Roger’s death in 1154, however. Revolts removed several cities from Norman control, while the rapidly expanding Almohad Caliphate advanced into Ifriqiya. Tripoli fell in 1158, and Mahdia, the final Norman stronghold, surrendered to the Almohads in 1160.
Had Norman rule endured, Sicily might have become the centre of a lasting Mediterranean empire spanning parts of Europe and Africa. Continued possession of North African ports would have given its rulers greater influence over shipping routes, grain supplies and commercial connections with the wider Islamic world. It might also have limited Almohad expansion eastwards and strengthened Sicily’s position against other Mediterranean powers. Maintaining authority over distant and sometimes resistant communities would have remained difficult, but a permanent Norman presence in Ifriqiya could have made North Africa as important to the Norman story as England, southern Italy and Sicily.
5. Empire of Thessalonica (1224–1246)
Empire of Tessalonika under its greatest extant. Map by Serbian1331 / Wikimedia Commons
The Empire of Thessalonica emerged from the political fragmentation caused by the Fourth Crusade’s conquest of Constantinople in 1204. While Latin crusaders established themselves in the Byzantine capital, several Greek successor states competed to recover former imperial territories. Theodore Komnenos Doukas, ruler of Epirus, expanded eastwards through Macedonia and captured Thessalonica from its Latin rulers in 1224. He subsequently assumed the imperial title and established a court in the city, presenting himself as the ruler who would defeat the Latin Empire and restore Byzantine rule in Constantinople. For a time, his state rivalled the Empire of Nicaea as the strongest claimant to the Byzantine inheritance.
Theodore’s ambitions were broken by a disastrous decision in 1230. While preparing to advance towards Constantinople, he turned against Bulgaria, apparently fearing that it threatened his northern flank. Bulgarian forces under Ivan Asen II defeated him at the Battle of Klokotnitsa and took him prisoner. Most of Theodore’s conquests were lost almost immediately, and Thessalonica became a Bulgarian vassal. His relatives continued to rule the diminished state, but in 1242 they were forced to abandon the imperial title and recognise the authority of Nicaea. Four years later, the Nicaean emperor John III Vatatzes annexed Thessalonica. Nicaea went on to recover Constantinople in 1261, while Theodore’s imperial project largely disappeared from history.
Had Theodore defeated Bulgaria, or simply avoided the conflict, Thessalonica might have restored the Byzantine Empire before Nicaea could do so. A revived empire centred initially in the western Balkans would have possessed different political priorities, alliances and vulnerabilities from the state created by the Nicaean emperors. It might have concentrated more heavily on Greece and the Balkans while maintaining closer connections with Serbia and the Adriatic world. The survival of the Empire of Thessalonica could therefore have changed not only which dynasty recovered Constantinople, but also the political direction taken by the restored Byzantine Empire during its final centuries.
6. Cyprus under Isaac Komnenos (c. 1184–1191)
15th century map of Cyprus – British Library Additional MS 15760, ff.47v-48r
Isaac Komnenos established an independent state on Cyprus by taking advantage of instability within the Byzantine Empire. A member of the extended Komnenian imperial family, he arrived on the island around 1184 and gained control by presenting documents that supposedly authorised him to govern. Once established, he rejected Byzantine authority and had himself crowned emperor by an independent Cypriot patriarch. The government in Constantinople attempted to recover the island in 1186, but its expedition failed after Norman forces from Sicily intervened. Cyprus consequently remained under Isaac’s control, supported by its distance from Constantinople and his connections with other Mediterranean powers.
Isaac’s state came to an abrupt end during the Third Crusade. In 1191, storms scattered the fleet of Richard the Lionheart as it travelled towards the eastern Mediterranean, bringing several ships to Cyprus. A dispute over the treatment of the shipwrecked crusaders and the return of their property escalated into open conflict. Richard landed his forces and defeated Isaac in a rapid campaign, ending his rule after approximately seven years. Richard then transferred Cyprus to the to the Knights Templar before granting it to Guy of Lusignan. This led to the creation of the crusader Kingdom of Cyprus, which survived for nearly three centuries and became an important base for western expeditions and commerce in the eastern Mediterranean.
Had Isaac or his dynasty retained control, Cyprus might have remained an independent Greek Orthodox state positioned between Byzantium, the crusader states and the Muslim powers of the region. Without Richard’s conquest, the Lusignan Kingdom of Cyprus would never have emerged in the same form, depriving the crusaders of one of their most valuable and defensible Mediterranean bases. An independent Cyprus could instead have aligned itself with Byzantium, Sicily or neighbouring Muslim rulers according to circumstance. Its survival might therefore have changed the later history of the Crusades while preserving a Byzantine-style state on the island long after Constantinople itself fell to the Fourth Crusade in 1204.
7. Taebong (901–918)
T’aebong at its height in 915. Image by KJS615 / Wikimedia Commons
Taebong emerged during the collapse of Silla, the kingdom that had dominated much of the Korean Peninsula for centuries. As royal authority weakened, peasant rebellions spread and regional military leaders established their own territories. One of these leaders was Gung Ye, a former Buddhist monk who claimed connections to Silla’s royal family but presented himself as the restorer of the earlier northern kingdom of Goguryeo. In 901, he proclaimed a new state initially known as Later Goguryeo. He subsequently renamed it Majin and then Taebong, establishing his capital at Cheorwon. Along with Silla and Later Baekje, it became one of the three competing states of Korea’s Later Three Kingdoms period.
Gung Ye attempted to strengthen his authority through religion, eventually presenting himself as the Maitreya Buddha, a future Buddha believed to bring a new age. His increasingly absolute rule and suspicion of political opponents, however, alienated many of the commanders and regional leaders on whom his state depended. In 918, several senior generals overthrew him and placed his leading commander, Wang Geon, on the throne. Wang renamed the state Goryeo and proved more successful at cooperating with local elites. He absorbed Silla, defeated Later Baekje and reunited most of the Korean Peninsula by 936. Taebong therefore disappeared, but its territory, armies and claim to Goguryeo’s legacy provided the foundations for the Goryeo dynasty, which ruled until 1392.
Had Taebong endured under Gung Ye or his descendants, it might still have become the state that reunited Korea, but the resulting kingdom could have looked very different. Its government might have placed greater emphasis on Gung Ye’s religious authority and maintained its political centre at Cheorwon rather than Wang Geon’s base at Songak. Its relationships with Silla, Later Baekje and powerful regional families might also have been more confrontational. Because the name Goryeo eventually gave rise to the modern name “Korea,” Taebong’s survival might even have changed the name by which the country became known to the wider world.
8. Eric Bloodaxe’s Kingdom of Jórvík (952–954)
A complete Early-Medieval silver penny of Eric Bloodaxe dating to the period AD 952 – 954. Second Reign. Reverse shows small cross pattee surrounded by [+ING . Æ . LGAR] (Ingelgar) inscription. Moneyer Ingelgar. Mint of York. – York Museums Trust / Portable Antiquities Scheme
Eric Bloodaxe had already pursued one kingdom before claiming another at York. According to later Norse traditions, he was a son of Harald Fairhair and succeeded his father as king of Norway during the early tenth century. His violent reputation and struggles with his brothers supposedly earned him the name Bloodaxe, although the origins of the nickname and many details of his Norwegian career remain uncertain. His position in Norway was challenged by his younger half-brother Haakon, who gained the support of leading nobles and forced Eric into exile. Eric subsequently turned towards the Scandinavian communities of the British Isles, where control of York offered another opportunity to establish himself as a king.
The Viking kingdom centred on York, known to the Norse as Jórvík, had existed in various forms since the Scandinavian conquest of the city in 866. Eric briefly ruled Northumbria around 947–948 before being displaced by Olaf Sihtricson. In 952, the Northumbrians expelled Olaf and accepted Eric once again, temporarily restoring independent Viking rule at York. His second reign lasted only two years. In 954, he was driven from Northumbria and was reportedly betrayed and killed soon after. King Eadred then brought the region under his authority, ending the succession of independent Scandinavian kings at York and taking an important step towards the political unification of England.
Had Eric proved more successful, he might have created a multi-kingdom state connecting Norway and northern England across the North Sea. Retaining or recovering the Norwegian throne while holding York would have given him access to the military and commercial resources of two important Scandinavian centres. Such a maritime kingdom could have extended its influence into Scotland, Ireland and the islands of the North Atlantic, anticipating the larger North Sea empire created by Cnut several generations later. Its survival would also have obstructed English unification and preserved an independent Viking kingdom in northern England, potentially changing the balance of power across Britain and Scandinavia.
9. Great Xia (1362–1371)
Great Xia territory in 1365 – Wikimedia Commons
Great Xia emerged as one of the large regional states competing to replace the Yuan dynasty during its collapse. Its founder, Ming Yuzhen, had been a commander in the Red Turban movement and entered Sichuan in 1357 while serving the rebel state of Tianwan. After Tianwan’s ruler was overthrown, Ming refused to recognise the new regime and established himself independently. He became King of Longshu in 1360 and proclaimed himself emperor of Great Xia two years later, ruling from Chongqing. His territory encompassed the extensive and wealthy Sichuan Basin, along with neighbouring districts, giving his government the population, agricultural resources and defensive geography needed to become a major power.
Although its origins lay in rebellion and popular religious movements, Great Xia adopted traditional Chinese institutions and Confucian ideas to present itself as a legitimate dynasty. Ming Yuzhen attempted to expand into Yunnan before turning his attention towards consolidating Sichuan. His sudden death in 1366 did not create Zhu Yuanzhang’s power, but it removed a potentially formidable rival at a crucial moment. While Great Xia struggled under Ming’s young son, Ming Sheng, and a divided court, Zhu defeated his remaining opponents, overthrew Yuan rule and established the Ming dynasty in 1368. Ming armies subsequently entered Sichuan from the north and along the Yangtze River, overcoming Great Xia’s natural defences. Ming Sheng surrendered at Chongqing in 1371, bringing the nine-year-old dynasty to an end.
The triumph of the Ming was not inevitable, and Great Xia could conceivably have become the dynasty that replaced the Yuan. Had Ming Yuzhen lived longer, maintained internal unity and successfully expanded beyond Sichuan, he would have possessed a secure territorial base from which to challenge rival regimes for control of China. Even if Great Xia had not conquered the entire country, it might have forced the Ming to accept a lasting division between eastern and western dynasties. Its survival could therefore have changed which ruling house reunified China, the location of the new empire’s political centre and the later relationship between China’s central government and the southwestern regions.
10. Samo’s Realm (c. 623–658)
Map by Bari’ bin Farangi / Wikimedia Commons
Samo’s Realm was the earliest large-scale Slavic political union recorded by a contemporary source. Almost everything known about it comes from the seventh-century Chronicle of Fredegar, which describes Samo as a Frankish merchant who travelled among the Slavs of Central Europe. At the time, many Slavic communities were subject to the Avar Khaganate. Samo joined their rebellion, proved himself an effective military leader and was selected as their ruler after a series of victories. The precise boundaries of his realm are uncertain, but it probably encompassed communities across parts of present-day Moravia, Bohemia, Slovakia and neighbouring regions.
Samo’s authority was tested not only by the Avars but also by the powerful Frankish kingdom to the west. Around 631, King Dagobert I sent several armies against him, but the main Frankish force was defeated during a three-day confrontation at an unidentified stronghold called Wogastisburg. This victory strengthened Samo’s position and drew additional Slavic groups into his alliance. He reportedly ruled for approximately 35 years, but his political union appears to have depended on his personal military leadership. After his death around 658, the realm disappears from the historical record, with no evidence that one of his many sons inherited authority over the entire confederation.
Had Samo’s realm survived, it might have developed into a powerful state at the centre of Europe. It could have limited Avar and Frankish expansion, united Slavic communities that later went their separate ways and influenced how Christianity spread through the region. Its continued existence might have significantly changed the political and cultural development of Central Europe.
These states disappeared, but their brief existence shows how quickly the medieval political landscape could change. Many arose from collapsing empires, military victories or the ambitions of a single ruler, only to fall through defeat, disputed succession or internal division. Had even one of them endured, it might have reshaped borders, redirected trade or altered the growth of the powers surrounding it. Their stories remind us that the medieval world was filled with possibilities, and that the states remembered today were not the only ones that might have shaped history.
Some medieval states lasted for centuries. Others rose quickly, disrupted the political order and disappeared almost as suddenly, leaving behind the question of what might have happened had they endured.
These short-lived states emerged from conquest, rebellion, disputed succession and the collapse of older powers. Despite their brief existence, many left a considerable mark on the regions they controlled, altering borders, weakening established kingdoms and creating political possibilities that had not existed before. Their eventual collapse was not always inevitable: a different ruler, a successful battle or a more secure succession might have allowed some to survive. Examining why they rose and fell therefore offers more than a history of failed states; it reveals how uncertain the medieval political world could be and how differently history might have unfolded.
1. Middle Francia (843–855)
Partition of Francia after the Treaty of Verdun 843 – map by Furfur / Wikimedia Commons
Middle Francia emerged from the struggle among Charlemagne’s grandsons for control of the Carolingian Empire. Under the Treaty of Verdun in 843, the empire was divided among Lothair I, Louis the German and Charles the Bald. Lothair retained the imperial title and received an immense band of territory stretching from the North Sea through the Low Countries, the Rhineland, Burgundy and Provence into northern Italy. His kingdom included Aachen, the former centre of Charlemagne’s government, as well as Rome and the wealthy cities of northern Italy. On a map, Middle Francia appeared to be the bridge connecting the northern and southern parts of the old empire.
Yet its great length was also its central weakness. The Alps divided its territories, communications were difficult, and the kingdom contained regions with different political interests and identities. Middle Francia was not destroyed by invasion, however. When Lothair became seriously ill in 855, he divided it among his sons through the Treaty of Prüm. Louis II received Italy and the imperial title, Lothair II received the northern territories that became known as Lotharingia, and Charles received Provence and much of Burgundy. The original kingdom had lasted only twelve years, but its territories remained at the centre of political struggles among the rulers of Western Europe for centuries.
Had Middle Francia endured, the political map of Europe might have developed very differently. A stable kingdom controlling the lands between West and East Francia could have limited the expansion of the powers that eventually became France and Germany. It might also have preserved a stronger political connection between northern Italy, the Rhineland and the Low Countries, while giving the Carolingian imperial title a more substantial territorial base. Such a geographically divided kingdom would have been difficult to maintain, but its survival could have created a major central European power occupying some of the continent’s wealthiest and most contested regions.
2. Serbian Empire (1346–1371)
The Serbian Empire was largely the creation of Stefan Dušan, who took advantage of civil wars and declining central authority within the Byzantine Empire to expand southwards. Serbian forces gained control of Macedonia, Albania, Epirus and Thessaly, creating a state that extended from the Danube towards the Gulf of Corinth. In 1346, Dušan was crowned “Emperor of the Serbs and Greeks” at Skopje, signalling his ambition to succeed Byzantium as the leading Orthodox power in southeastern Europe. He also elevated the Serbian Church to a patriarchate and introduced Dušan’s Code, an extensive body of law intended to govern his enlarged and diverse empire.
The empire’s strength depended heavily on Dušan’s leadership and military success. When he died unexpectedly in 1355, his son Stefan Uroš V inherited territories that had been conquered faster than they could be integrated. Powerful nobles increasingly governed their lands independently, leaving the emperor with little effective authority. This fragmentation became particularly damaging as the Ottomans expanded into the Balkans. In 1371, the regional rulers Vukašin and Jovan Uglješa were defeated at the Battle of Maritsa, while Uroš died childless later that year. The empire consequently broke into a collection of smaller principalities. Nevertheless, it remained the largest state created by medieval Serbia and left an important legal, political and religious legacy.
Had the Serbian Empire remained united, it might have presented a much stronger obstacle to Ottoman expansion in the Balkans. A stable succession and a more effective central administration could have preserved control over Macedonia and other strategically important territories, possibly allowing Serbia to organise broader cooperation with Byzantium, Bulgaria and Hungary. It would be too much to assume that the empire could have permanently stopped the Ottomans, but a powerful Serbian state might have delayed their advance and prevented the political fragmentation that made the region increasingly vulnerable. Its survival could also have shifted the centre of Orthodox power away from a declining Constantinople and towards a Serbian imperial court.
3. Valencia under El Cid (1094–1102)
Valencia became the centre of an unusual independent principality created by Rodrigo Díaz de Vivar, better known as El Cid. A Castilian warrior who had served both Christian and Muslim rulers, Rodrigo gradually extended his influence across eastern Iberia while the local taifa kingdoms faced pressure from the expanding Almoravid Empire. After a lengthy siege, he captured Valencia in 1094 and governed it as its effective ruler. His forces included both Christians and Muslims, reflecting the complicated political alliances of eleventh-century Iberia. Later that year, he defeated an Almoravid attempt to recover the city and subsequently strengthened his position by capturing nearby fortresses.
The principality depended heavily on El Cid’s military leadership and personal network of followers. When he died in 1099, his widow, Jimena Díaz, succeeded him and attempted to preserve control of Valencia. Almoravid pressure continued, however, while the Christian kingdoms were unable or unwilling to provide enough support to hold the exposed city. In 1102, King Alfonso VI helped evacuate Valencia, which then passed into Almoravid hands. Although the principality lasted only eight years, its creation demonstrated that an ambitious military leader could build a new state between the established Christian kingdoms and Muslim powers. It also became central to El Cid’s later transformation into one of the most famous figures of medieval Spanish history.
Had Valencia survived, it might have developed into an independent Christian-led state on the Mediterranean coast rather than eventually becoming part of the Crown of Aragon. Its continued existence could have restricted Almoravid expansion in eastern Iberia and created another competitor in the struggles among Castile, Aragon and the remaining taifa kingdoms. Because El Cid’s authority rested on cooperation across religious and political boundaries as well as conquest, a durable Valencian principality might also have developed differently from the larger kingdoms surrounding it. Its survival would not necessarily have ended conflict in the region, but it could have significantly altered the balance of power during the following century.
4. Norman Kingdom of Africa (1148–1160)
The Norman Kingdom of Africa was another striking example of Norman expansion during the Middle Ages. Within a few generations, Norman warriors and dynasties had conquered England, established principalities in southern Italy and taken Sicily from its Muslim rulers. From Sicily, they then looked south towards the coast of North Africa. The resulting “Kingdom of Africa” was not a completely separate monarchy, but an overseas extension of Roger II’s Kingdom of Sicily. Political divisions, famine and the weakening of the Zirid dynasty provided Roger with an opportunity to intervene. Tripoli was captured in 1146, followed by Mahdia, Sfax and Sousse in 1148. By the following year, the Normans controlled much of the coastline of Ifriqiya, encompassing parts of present-day Tunisia, eastern Algeria and western Libya.
The Normans governed their African possessions through a combination of Sicilian officials and local Muslim leaders, while merchants continued to connect the region with Sicily, Egypt and trade routes reaching into sub-Saharan Africa. The conquest demonstrated the extraordinary geographical reach of Norman expansion and the ability of Sicily’s rulers to govern territories containing different religious, linguistic and cultural communities. Their position became increasingly precarious after Roger’s death in 1154, however. Revolts removed several cities from Norman control, while the rapidly expanding Almohad Caliphate advanced into Ifriqiya. Tripoli fell in 1158, and Mahdia, the final Norman stronghold, surrendered to the Almohads in 1160.
Had Norman rule endured, Sicily might have become the centre of a lasting Mediterranean empire spanning parts of Europe and Africa. Continued possession of North African ports would have given its rulers greater influence over shipping routes, grain supplies and commercial connections with the wider Islamic world. It might also have limited Almohad expansion eastwards and strengthened Sicily’s position against other Mediterranean powers. Maintaining authority over distant and sometimes resistant communities would have remained difficult, but a permanent Norman presence in Ifriqiya could have made North Africa as important to the Norman story as England, southern Italy and Sicily.
5. Empire of Thessalonica (1224–1246)
The Empire of Thessalonica emerged from the political fragmentation caused by the Fourth Crusade’s conquest of Constantinople in 1204. While Latin crusaders established themselves in the Byzantine capital, several Greek successor states competed to recover former imperial territories. Theodore Komnenos Doukas, ruler of Epirus, expanded eastwards through Macedonia and captured Thessalonica from its Latin rulers in 1224. He subsequently assumed the imperial title and established a court in the city, presenting himself as the ruler who would defeat the Latin Empire and restore Byzantine rule in Constantinople. For a time, his state rivalled the Empire of Nicaea as the strongest claimant to the Byzantine inheritance.
Theodore’s ambitions were broken by a disastrous decision in 1230. While preparing to advance towards Constantinople, he turned against Bulgaria, apparently fearing that it threatened his northern flank. Bulgarian forces under Ivan Asen II defeated him at the Battle of Klokotnitsa and took him prisoner. Most of Theodore’s conquests were lost almost immediately, and Thessalonica became a Bulgarian vassal. His relatives continued to rule the diminished state, but in 1242 they were forced to abandon the imperial title and recognise the authority of Nicaea. Four years later, the Nicaean emperor John III Vatatzes annexed Thessalonica. Nicaea went on to recover Constantinople in 1261, while Theodore’s imperial project largely disappeared from history.
Had Theodore defeated Bulgaria, or simply avoided the conflict, Thessalonica might have restored the Byzantine Empire before Nicaea could do so. A revived empire centred initially in the western Balkans would have possessed different political priorities, alliances and vulnerabilities from the state created by the Nicaean emperors. It might have concentrated more heavily on Greece and the Balkans while maintaining closer connections with Serbia and the Adriatic world. The survival of the Empire of Thessalonica could therefore have changed not only which dynasty recovered Constantinople, but also the political direction taken by the restored Byzantine Empire during its final centuries.
6. Cyprus under Isaac Komnenos (c. 1184–1191)
Isaac Komnenos established an independent state on Cyprus by taking advantage of instability within the Byzantine Empire. A member of the extended Komnenian imperial family, he arrived on the island around 1184 and gained control by presenting documents that supposedly authorised him to govern. Once established, he rejected Byzantine authority and had himself crowned emperor by an independent Cypriot patriarch. The government in Constantinople attempted to recover the island in 1186, but its expedition failed after Norman forces from Sicily intervened. Cyprus consequently remained under Isaac’s control, supported by its distance from Constantinople and his connections with other Mediterranean powers.
Isaac’s state came to an abrupt end during the Third Crusade. In 1191, storms scattered the fleet of Richard the Lionheart as it travelled towards the eastern Mediterranean, bringing several ships to Cyprus. A dispute over the treatment of the shipwrecked crusaders and the return of their property escalated into open conflict. Richard landed his forces and defeated Isaac in a rapid campaign, ending his rule after approximately seven years. Richard then transferred Cyprus to the to the Knights Templar before granting it to Guy of Lusignan. This led to the creation of the crusader Kingdom of Cyprus, which survived for nearly three centuries and became an important base for western expeditions and commerce in the eastern Mediterranean.
Had Isaac or his dynasty retained control, Cyprus might have remained an independent Greek Orthodox state positioned between Byzantium, the crusader states and the Muslim powers of the region. Without Richard’s conquest, the Lusignan Kingdom of Cyprus would never have emerged in the same form, depriving the crusaders of one of their most valuable and defensible Mediterranean bases. An independent Cyprus could instead have aligned itself with Byzantium, Sicily or neighbouring Muslim rulers according to circumstance. Its survival might therefore have changed the later history of the Crusades while preserving a Byzantine-style state on the island long after Constantinople itself fell to the Fourth Crusade in 1204.
7. Taebong (901–918)
Taebong emerged during the collapse of Silla, the kingdom that had dominated much of the Korean Peninsula for centuries. As royal authority weakened, peasant rebellions spread and regional military leaders established their own territories. One of these leaders was Gung Ye, a former Buddhist monk who claimed connections to Silla’s royal family but presented himself as the restorer of the earlier northern kingdom of Goguryeo. In 901, he proclaimed a new state initially known as Later Goguryeo. He subsequently renamed it Majin and then Taebong, establishing his capital at Cheorwon. Along with Silla and Later Baekje, it became one of the three competing states of Korea’s Later Three Kingdoms period.
Gung Ye attempted to strengthen his authority through religion, eventually presenting himself as the Maitreya Buddha, a future Buddha believed to bring a new age. His increasingly absolute rule and suspicion of political opponents, however, alienated many of the commanders and regional leaders on whom his state depended. In 918, several senior generals overthrew him and placed his leading commander, Wang Geon, on the throne. Wang renamed the state Goryeo and proved more successful at cooperating with local elites. He absorbed Silla, defeated Later Baekje and reunited most of the Korean Peninsula by 936. Taebong therefore disappeared, but its territory, armies and claim to Goguryeo’s legacy provided the foundations for the Goryeo dynasty, which ruled until 1392.
Had Taebong endured under Gung Ye or his descendants, it might still have become the state that reunited Korea, but the resulting kingdom could have looked very different. Its government might have placed greater emphasis on Gung Ye’s religious authority and maintained its political centre at Cheorwon rather than Wang Geon’s base at Songak. Its relationships with Silla, Later Baekje and powerful regional families might also have been more confrontational. Because the name Goryeo eventually gave rise to the modern name “Korea,” Taebong’s survival might even have changed the name by which the country became known to the wider world.
8. Eric Bloodaxe’s Kingdom of Jórvík (952–954)
Eric Bloodaxe had already pursued one kingdom before claiming another at York. According to later Norse traditions, he was a son of Harald Fairhair and succeeded his father as king of Norway during the early tenth century. His violent reputation and struggles with his brothers supposedly earned him the name Bloodaxe, although the origins of the nickname and many details of his Norwegian career remain uncertain. His position in Norway was challenged by his younger half-brother Haakon, who gained the support of leading nobles and forced Eric into exile. Eric subsequently turned towards the Scandinavian communities of the British Isles, where control of York offered another opportunity to establish himself as a king.
The Viking kingdom centred on York, known to the Norse as Jórvík, had existed in various forms since the Scandinavian conquest of the city in 866. Eric briefly ruled Northumbria around 947–948 before being displaced by Olaf Sihtricson. In 952, the Northumbrians expelled Olaf and accepted Eric once again, temporarily restoring independent Viking rule at York. His second reign lasted only two years. In 954, he was driven from Northumbria and was reportedly betrayed and killed soon after. King Eadred then brought the region under his authority, ending the succession of independent Scandinavian kings at York and taking an important step towards the political unification of England.
Had Eric proved more successful, he might have created a multi-kingdom state connecting Norway and northern England across the North Sea. Retaining or recovering the Norwegian throne while holding York would have given him access to the military and commercial resources of two important Scandinavian centres. Such a maritime kingdom could have extended its influence into Scotland, Ireland and the islands of the North Atlantic, anticipating the larger North Sea empire created by Cnut several generations later. Its survival would also have obstructed English unification and preserved an independent Viking kingdom in northern England, potentially changing the balance of power across Britain and Scandinavia.
9. Great Xia (1362–1371)
Great Xia emerged as one of the large regional states competing to replace the Yuan dynasty during its collapse. Its founder, Ming Yuzhen, had been a commander in the Red Turban movement and entered Sichuan in 1357 while serving the rebel state of Tianwan. After Tianwan’s ruler was overthrown, Ming refused to recognise the new regime and established himself independently. He became King of Longshu in 1360 and proclaimed himself emperor of Great Xia two years later, ruling from Chongqing. His territory encompassed the extensive and wealthy Sichuan Basin, along with neighbouring districts, giving his government the population, agricultural resources and defensive geography needed to become a major power.
Although its origins lay in rebellion and popular religious movements, Great Xia adopted traditional Chinese institutions and Confucian ideas to present itself as a legitimate dynasty. Ming Yuzhen attempted to expand into Yunnan before turning his attention towards consolidating Sichuan. His sudden death in 1366 did not create Zhu Yuanzhang’s power, but it removed a potentially formidable rival at a crucial moment. While Great Xia struggled under Ming’s young son, Ming Sheng, and a divided court, Zhu defeated his remaining opponents, overthrew Yuan rule and established the Ming dynasty in 1368. Ming armies subsequently entered Sichuan from the north and along the Yangtze River, overcoming Great Xia’s natural defences. Ming Sheng surrendered at Chongqing in 1371, bringing the nine-year-old dynasty to an end.
The triumph of the Ming was not inevitable, and Great Xia could conceivably have become the dynasty that replaced the Yuan. Had Ming Yuzhen lived longer, maintained internal unity and successfully expanded beyond Sichuan, he would have possessed a secure territorial base from which to challenge rival regimes for control of China. Even if Great Xia had not conquered the entire country, it might have forced the Ming to accept a lasting division between eastern and western dynasties. Its survival could therefore have changed which ruling house reunified China, the location of the new empire’s political centre and the later relationship between China’s central government and the southwestern regions.
10. Samo’s Realm (c. 623–658)
Samo’s Realm was the earliest large-scale Slavic political union recorded by a contemporary source. Almost everything known about it comes from the seventh-century Chronicle of Fredegar, which describes Samo as a Frankish merchant who travelled among the Slavs of Central Europe. At the time, many Slavic communities were subject to the Avar Khaganate. Samo joined their rebellion, proved himself an effective military leader and was selected as their ruler after a series of victories. The precise boundaries of his realm are uncertain, but it probably encompassed communities across parts of present-day Moravia, Bohemia, Slovakia and neighbouring regions.
Samo’s authority was tested not only by the Avars but also by the powerful Frankish kingdom to the west. Around 631, King Dagobert I sent several armies against him, but the main Frankish force was defeated during a three-day confrontation at an unidentified stronghold called Wogastisburg. This victory strengthened Samo’s position and drew additional Slavic groups into his alliance. He reportedly ruled for approximately 35 years, but his political union appears to have depended on his personal military leadership. After his death around 658, the realm disappears from the historical record, with no evidence that one of his many sons inherited authority over the entire confederation.
Had Samo’s realm survived, it might have developed into a powerful state at the centre of Europe. It could have limited Avar and Frankish expansion, united Slavic communities that later went their separate ways and influenced how Christianity spread through the region. Its continued existence might have significantly changed the political and cultural development of Central Europe.
These states disappeared, but their brief existence shows how quickly the medieval political landscape could change. Many arose from collapsing empires, military victories or the ambitions of a single ruler, only to fall through defeat, disputed succession or internal division. Had even one of them endured, it might have reshaped borders, redirected trade or altered the growth of the powers surrounding it. Their stories remind us that the medieval world was filled with possibilities, and that the states remembered today were not the only ones that might have shaped history.
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